Binance founder Changpeng Zhao stated that between 10% and 20% of all mined Bitcoin is permanently lost or unrecoverable, equating to roughly 2–4 million coins. He described Bitcoin as a deflationary asset due to its fixed supply and ongoing losses.
The comments highlight the growing gap between the theoretical maximum supply and the amount actually available to trade.
The Drivers of This Activity
In a post on X, Zhao noted that more than 20.07 million Bitcoin had been mined as of mid-August 2026, representing about 95.6% of the 21 million hard cap. Only roughly 4.4% of the total supply remains to be issued.
He estimated that 10–20% of the existing coins are lost, stuck or otherwise unrecoverable because of forgotten private keys, discarded hardware or inaccessible wallets. This would leave an effective circulating supply closer to 16–18 million BTC. Zhao explicitly called Bitcoin a deflationary asset on that basis.
The remarks came amid broader discussion about scarcity, including comparisons with the global number of millionaires and the impact of long-term holders who rarely move their coins.
Impact and Broader Context
Zhao’s estimate aligns with longstanding industry analyses that place permanent Bitcoin losses in the low millions. Each lost coin permanently reduces the tradable float, reinforcing the scarcity narrative that underpins much of Bitcoin’s value proposition.
The comments also underscore that the practical supply available for new buyers is meaningfully smaller than the headline figure of 21 million. Combined with coins held by long-term investors who do not sell, the liquid supply is even tighter.
Market participants will continue to debate the exact scale of lost coins and how these dynamics influence long-term price discovery. Further on-chain studies and any future comments from major figures may refine the consensus view on Bitcoin’s true circulating supply.
Source: CZ X post reported via crypto.news and related coverage; BeInCrypto
Changpeng Zhao (@cz_binance) X post