As the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off across North American stadiums, a different kind of competition is heating up in the financial world. Investment firm Bernstein has declared Coinbase one of the biggest winners in the rapidly expanding prediction market space, positioning the crypto exchange to capture a share of what analysts project could be a $5 billion to $10 billion surge in consumer prediction market activity tied to the tournament.
In a research report published Thursday, Bernstein analysts framed the World Cup as a watershed moment for prediction markets. The expanded 48-team format, featuring 104 matches over a month-long schedule, transforms what is traditionally the quietest stretch of the year for online sports betting into a massive revenue opportunity. Bernstein estimates the tournament will generate more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle alongside billions more in prediction market volume, all while drawing an estimated 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from roughly 5 billion during the 2022 Qatar edition.
Coinbase’s rise in this space has been nothing short of remarkable. The exchange crossed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue in March 2026, within just two months of launching the product, making it one of the fastest-growing lines in the company’s history. Coinbase is offering World Cup contracts through its partnership with Kalshi, the CFTC-licensed prediction market platform that has rapidly consolidated its dominance in the sector. Kalshi’s monthly volume grew roughly 22 times over the past year, surging 21 percent month over month in May to $17.9 billion, capturing approximately 57 percent market share while rival Polymarket declined.
The broader prediction market industry is undergoing a structural shift. Bernstein projects total industry volumes scaling from around $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, with 2026 volumes alone expected to reach $240 billion. Annualized industry revenue is forecast to grow from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion this year, and Coinbase’s early traction places it squarely at the center of that expansion.
Coinbase is not the only platform chasing the World Cup dividend. Robinhood is using the tournament to launch Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange and clearinghouse. Bernstein projects roughly $586 million in prediction market revenue for Robinhood by year-end, forecasting that prediction markets will be the single biggest driver of incremental revenue for the brokerage in 2026. DraftKings Predictions is expected to add approximately 650,000 new accounts during the tournament.
Regulatory tailwinds are also building. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released draft rules this week indicating that sports event contracts are generally not considered contrary to the public interest, a signal that the legal framework for this market is becoming more favorable.
With 104 matches yet to be played and billions of dollars flowing through prediction platforms, the World Cup is no longer just a football tournament. For Coinbase and the prediction market industry at large, it is the moment the sector steps into the mainstream.