A French trader has made a massive bet of $45 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election through Polymarket, a prediction market platform. This individual, with a background in financial services and extensive trading experience, is behind four major accounts, including “Fredi9999,” which have collectively invested millions in favor of a Republican victory.
Polymarket’s investigation found no evidence of market manipulation, with the trader taking a directional position based on personal views of the election. As of Thursday, Trump’s implied probability of winning on Polymarket stood at 61.1%, higher than other platforms like Kalshi (58%) and PredictIt (57%).
Polymarket has faced restrictions from U.S. regulators since 2022 and is not allowed to operate in the U.S. Despite this, the platform remains popular for 2024 presidential election predictions, with almost $2.4 billion in trading volume. Some social media users have speculated about high-profile Americans being behind the bets, but Polymarket confirmed the accounts belong to non-Americans.