Blockchain.com and Binance US are advancing plans to offer regulated prediction markets in the United States, joining a growing list of crypto platforms seeking new revenue streams amid slower traditional digital-asset trading. Blockchain.com has applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for a Designated Contract Market license and Futures Commission Merchant registration, which would allow it to list event contracts and crypto derivatives for U.S. customers. Binance US has similarly pursued CFTC authorization for prediction market services.
Blockchain.com already provides prediction markets through a Polymarket partnership and perpetual futures via Hyperliquid to eligible international users. Approval of the U.S. licenses would bring similar offerings in-house for domestic customers. Binance US views prediction markets as part of a broader expansion beyond spot trading as it works to regain market share. The moves come as combined trading volume on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket rose sharply, from about $17 billion in January to $72 billion in September 2026.
The Drivers of the Current Situation
The main issue is the push by established crypto platforms into regulated U.S. prediction markets while core token trading activity has cooled. Event contracts that let users take positions on real-world outcomes have attracted significant volume and attention. Blockchain.com’s dual CFTC filings aim to support both exchange and brokerage functions for these products alongside crypto derivatives. Binance US is pursuing comparable authorization as part of its product diversification.
Related factors have accelerated the race. A prolonged slowdown in cryptocurrency trading volumes has pressured traditional exchange revenue models, prompting firms to look for alternatives. Prediction markets have demonstrated strong growth independent of crypto price action. Only the reported CFTC applications by Blockchain.com and Binance US, the existing international offerings at Blockchain.com, and the broader industry volume surge are confirmed. Competition from Coinbase (via Kalshi partnerships), Crypto.com, Gemini, and others, along with rising institutional and retail interest in event contracts, has contributed to the momentum.
Continued monitoring requires observation of CFTC review timelines, potential approvals, and actual product launches. Limited immediate detail on exact launch dates or specific contract menus forms a narrower path for precise forecasting. Platforms and regulators continue to navigate the regulatory pathway while volumes on existing venues remain elevated. The situation is a diversification drive into prediction markets by major crypto firms responding to softer core trading conditions.
Impact and Broader Context
Questions about Blockchain.com and Binance US joining the prediction market race as crypto trading slows keep growing. The regulatory filings create uncertainty about how quickly new venues will come online and how they will compete with established players. They also elevate attention on the shift of crypto businesses toward multi-product platforms that include event contracts. Users, competing exchanges, and regulators continue to assess the implications.
The issue drives debate on the role of prediction markets as a growth engine for crypto firms. It raises questions about the durability of volume gains in event contracts, the limits of regulatory capacity at the CFTC, risks of fragmented state-versus-federal oversight, effects on near-term revenue diversification for exchanges, and competition among licensed and partnership-based offerings. Coverage notes the sharp rise in Kalshi and Polymarket volumes and positions the new filings as responses to a difficult environment for pure token trading. Notes highlight that several other firms have already entered or applied in the same category.
The October filings and related reporting forced renewed focus on prediction markets as a strategic priority. The current review shows how subsequent CFTC decisions, product rollouts, or further volume data will determine the lasting effect.
New license approvals, launch announcements, or updates on trading volumes will clarify how successfully these platforms convert regulatory applications into competitive offerings.
This analysis uses company statements, CFTC-related reporting, and contemporaneous coverage including Financial Times observations. Regulatory outcomes and market adoption remain subject to approval processes and broader conditions.