Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $118,607, down 2.18% in the last 24 hours, but still up 3.75% over the last week, as per CoinMarketCap. A slight correction is ongoing after the recent rally has been keeping traders on their toes.
The total market cap of BTC currently stands at $2.36T, with a 24 hour trading volume of $75,02B, which is 2.9% lower than the previous day. While spot trading is not seeing any wild action, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also in the same boat. According to data from Farside, the net inflow for August 11 is only $178 million, nearly half the previous trading session. This suggests that there is a potential slowdown in the threading activity during the consolidation phase.
According to Glassnode, a prominent on-chain analytics firm, short-term holders (those who’ve held BTC for less than 155 days) have been actively accumulating. Since June 21, these investors have added over 220,000 BTC to their wallets, marking a 9.9% increase.
While this accumulation is moderate compared to earlier surges this year, it clearly indicates that newer market participants or recent buyers are seizing the opportunity to ‘buy the dip’, which is often a bullish signal.
According to chart analysis on hourly time frames, Bitcoins recent price action shows that there is an ongoing Elliot Wave Cycle. Since August 3, BTC has already completed three impulsive waves, and the current dip represents the fourth wave correction. This corrective phase is expected to find a bottom within the support zone around the $118,000 mark.
The 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is also currently in the same zone, further providing a strong support to the price at this vital point. If the price successfully holds this level, it would confirm the Elliot Wave count and set the stage for the final fifth wave. The projected target for this next impulsive move is a new high at $124,800.
Analyzing key indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.01. This reading places Bitcoin in a neutral zone, meaning it is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample room for a move in either direction. The Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD), however, shows a bearish crossover, with the MACD line moving below the signal line.
Price Outlook
If Bitcoin successfully defends the crucial $118,00 support level, we could realistically see it retesting the $120,000 mark in a day or two. Along with this breakout, a combination of sustained institutional buying through ETFs and the ongoing accumulation by short term holders paints a positive narrative.
Should Bitcoin confirm the “Fourth Wave Bottom” and initiate its “Fifth Wave” as technical analysis suggests, it could target a price of $124,800 within the next week or two. However, with MACD showing bearish crossover, selling pressure could push the price down to test the $115,00 zone.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Crypto asset investments carry regulatory risk and may not be suitable for all jurisdictions.