According to Hougan, spot Bitcoin ETFs could have a significant long-term impact, akin to gold ETFs’ introduction in 2004.
Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, has pointed to excessive expectations surrounding the approval of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) as the primary cause of the recent price falls in cryptocurrencies.
Contrary to popular belief, Hougan argued that the sell-off was not directly tied to ETFs but rather to the market’s anticipation of their approval and subsequent reactions.
Hougan Warns Market Overestimated Short-Term Impact
Hougan shared his insights in a post on the social media platform X, stating, “This is not strictly speaking an ETF-led sell-off,” emphasizing that the anticipation was for more substantial inflows into ETFs than what has materialized, leading to a reversal of that speculation.
He concluded by stating, “IMO, just as the market overestimated the short-term impact of ETFs, it is underestimating the long-term impact.”
In a recent interview with “The Defiant” podcast, Hougan further expanded his insights into the potential effects of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs on the cryptocurrency market.
He addressed the short-term reaction to spot Bitcoin ETFs, noting that the market had already incorporated the approval of these products, resulting in unstable prices. He argued that investors had overestimated the immediate impact, leading to volatility and significant price changes.
Looking ahead, Hougan emphasized the potential long-term impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs, drawing parallels with the introduction of gold ETFs in 2004. He suggested that these ETFs could attract substantial investments, significantly boosting Bitcoin’s value, a trajectory currently underestimated by the market.
Hougan also highlighted a crucial shift in investor demographics, with the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs potentially attracting the remaining 80% of wealth controlled by financial advisors and institutions, a change he believes has yet to be fully recognized and could profoundly affect BTC’s value.
Industry Experts Weigh In
Gabor Gurbacs, a digital assets advisor at VanEck, shares a similar sentiment. Drawing parallels with gold, he suggests that the long-term influence of spot Bitcoin ETFs is likely underestimated, and the broader implications for BTC’s capital markets and financial products need to be fully appreciated in the current market valuation.
Echoing these views, Bloomberg Intelligence’s ETF analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, largely agree with Gurbacs’ analysis.
They emphasize the importance of looking beyond immediate developments and focusing on the potential long-term effects of Bitcoin in shaping its financial landscape.