Crypto market metrics suggest current conditions don’t match 2023 euphoria, indicating room for potential surge.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are currently following a pattern similar to previous years, during which their prices surged by 500% and 1,000%, respectively, according to the latest research report by Coinbase Research and Glassnode.
The observation draws parallels between the ongoing crypto market cycle and the period from 2018 to 2022, characterized by substantial price increases in both cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Halving’s Potential Impact on Crypto Markets
Analysts highlight various cyclicality metrics, such as net unrealized profit/loss and supply in profit, which mirror past trends. These metrics indicate that the present state of the crypto markets doesn’t mirror the euphoric conditions seen during the peak of 2023. It suggests there might still be potential for the market to experience further surges.
Despite acknowledging the potential positive impact of the forthcoming Bitcoin halving, Coinbase Research is cautious.
The paper noted a lack of robust supporting evidence and characterized the relationship between the halving and market performance as somewhat speculative.
The research points out that, with only three halving events historically, there isn’t a fully established pattern, especially considering previous events were influenced by factors like global liquidity measures.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving, projected to occur in April 2024 based on current mining rates, will reduce the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
Analyzing Ethereum’s Market and Upcoming Upgrade
In 2023, the Ethereum (ETH) price surged by over 90%, driven by several factors, such as the success of the Shapella upgrade and the increasing likelihood of approval for spot crypto ETFs. Market participants were encouraged by these developments, contributing to the increase in the ETH value.
Looking ahead, analysts are focusing on the upcoming Ethereum upgrade named Cancun. It is expected to enhance scalability and security to make layer-2 transactions as cost-effective as possible.
The successful implementation of Cancun could potentially lead to a significant increase in the number of processed transactions on the Ethereum network.
Coinbase’s analysis notes that Bitcoin and Ethereum have undergone two cycles, encompassing both bull and bear markets. The ongoing cycle, initiated in 2022, closely mirrors the patterns observed in the preceding ones.