On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has raised a major red flag for Bitcoin holders: nearly half of the circulating supply is now underwater (held at an unrealized loss), signaling deep investor pain amid the ongoing correction. Recent data shows approximately 9 million BTC — roughly 45% of circulating supply — trading below holders’ acquisition prices, with peaks nearing 50% during recent lows around $62,800–$63,000.
This elevated level of supply in loss aligns with historical bear market phases, where broad capitulation often marks late-cycle exhaustion rather than early weakness. Key insights from Glassnode include:
- ~9.2 million BTC (7-day moving average) held at a loss as of late February 2026 reports
- Persistent net realized losses dominating trading sessions (19 of 22 days in February showed more selling below cost)
- Overhead supply from recent buyers creating “break-even traps” that kill rebounds
- Macro pressures like rising Treasury yields and dollar strength exacerbating the drawdown from 2025 highs above $126,000
At current levels — with Bitcoin trading around $68,000 (fluctuating between $67,500–$68,500 as of early March 2026 across major exchanges like Binance, Coinbase, and Yahoo Finance) — the metric highlights widespread paper losses, particularly among short- and mid-term holders who entered during the 2025 bull run.
While long-term conviction remains (accumulation wallets still growing in some cohorts), the high percentage of underwater supply warns of potential further downside pressure if support fails at key levels like $60,000–$65,000. Historically, such conditions precede capitulation bottoms but can extend corrections if demand doesn’t step in aggressively.
Discover powerful 10x crypto opportunities, Bitcoin underwater supply analysis, how to trade crypto bear markets, Glassnode Bitcoin loss metrics, surviving BTC corrections, and strategies to position for recovery amid Bitcoin bear market signals 2026.
Check out www.Token10x.com for more breaking news, expert crypto insights, market analysis, and high-potential investment ideas to navigate volatility and grow your portfolio.
Join & Follow Us – Exclusive Crypto Alpha & Free Training
To follow our WhatsApp channel and join our WhatsApp group to learn free crypto trading, click here