The cryptocurrency market in 2025 has proven challenging for new token launches, with fresh data highlighting widespread underperformance. Research from Memento Research reveals that a staggering 84.7% of token generation events (TGEs) this year are trading below their initial valuations. Out of 118 tracked TGEs, 100 tokens have experienced declines in fully diluted valuation (FDV) since launch, with the median FDV dropping 71% and median market cap falling 67%.
This pattern represents a notable departure from earlier bull markets, where post-TGE gains were more frequent. In contrast, only around 15% of 2025 launches (18 tokens) remain above their opening prices, painting a picture of significant difficulty for most new projects. Retail investors, who typically enter at TGE, have faced the heaviest impact as initial excitement often gives way to prolonged price erosion.
Several interconnected factors explain this broad downturn. Inflated pre-launch valuations stand out, fueled by substantial venture capital inflows—$4.8 billion in Q1 and $4.59 billion in Q3—frequently at discounted rates for insiders. This dynamic leaves retail participants entering at higher levels with reduced upside potential. An oversupply of new tokens has also fragmented liquidity, spreading investor attention thin across numerous projects.
Broader market dynamics, including corrections in flagship assets like Bitcoin, have shifted capital toward established tokens, starving newcomers of demand. Many projects additionally struggle to achieve rapid product-market fit, triggering quick sell-offs following listings. Prominent examples of steep declines include Syndicate (down 93.64%), along with Animecoin, Berachain, and Bio Protocol, each exceeding 93% drops.
Despite the prevailing challenges, a handful of exceptions have bucked the trend. The clear leader is ASTEN from the Aster ecosystem, supported by YZI Labs, which has skyrocketed over 700% in FDV since TGE, approaching $5.7 billion with robust daily volumes near $300 million. Its gains stem from continuous product advancements, such as enhanced high-leverage trading capabilities, demonstrating that genuine utility and strong execution can still thrive in a discerning market. Other resilient performers include networks like Zora, Bedrock, Humanity, and Yooldo Games.
For crypto investors navigating 2025 and beyond, these findings emphasize a maturing ecosystem where “TGE isn’t early anymore.” Participating at launch no longer guarantees low-risk profits. Success now demands thorough due diligence, prioritizing projects with experienced teams, authentic utility, and sound tokenomics. In this environment, discernment is essential—liquidity increasingly flows to proven winners, while the majority of new tokens encounter persistent selling pressure.
As 2025 draws to a close, this analysis offers a sobering reminder. Cryptocurrency retains its volatility and opportunity, but this year’s launches underscore that quality trumps quantity in token performance.
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