An analyst from Citi, the banking powerhouse on Wall Street, estimates that Bitcoin could soar to $199,000 by December 2025. “Crypto assets, especially Bitcoin, have grown and are now included in large financial indices,” says Citi quant analyst Alex Saunders.
With Bitcoin trading at around $116,470, the forecast suggests a potential upside of about 70%. Moreover, the analyst considers user adoption, macroeconomic factors, and ETF inflows as the main influences. Citi’s base-case price is set at $135,000, but in a more optimistic scenario, it could rise to $199,000 if demand picks up even more.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs being one of the key influences may attract a new $15 billion in capital, which could lead to a rise of about $63,000 in price. Sinking all these into one pot gives us our final base target: $135,000.
ETF inflows now drive more than 40% of price variation. Since U.S. spot ETFs launched in early 2024, institutional access to Bitcoin has exploded. This shift is pulling crypto deeper into traditional finance.
Citibank looks at ETF demand with a bullish perspective, pointing out that the upside is greater than expectations. The interaction from users remains highly engaged and shows no sign of waning. This could see the prolonged adoption of these funds higher than previously forecasted.
Meanwhile, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, noted in his recent X post that prior cycle theories no longer hold. In shifted market dynamics, Institutions are now dominant and retail flows matter less while long-term holders outweigh short-term traders.