On Polymarket, questions over Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity have risen, with Len Sassaman emerging as a leading suspect in the upcoming HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, which will debut on October 8, 2024.
Sassaman, a well-known cryptographer and important figure in the cypherpunk movement, tragically committed suicide in 2011, shortly after Satoshi’s last message suggesting a retreat from Bitcoin activities.
The documentary, directed by Cullen Hoback and produced by Adam McKay, aims to explore the mystery of Bitcoin’s founder, whether Satoshi functioned alone or with partners, and the influence of their work on the global financial environment.
Sassaman’s candidacy is backed by Evan Leung Hatch’s idea, which links his suicide to Nakamoto’s final message, which stated, “I’ve moved on to other things and probably won’t be around in the future.” This, combined with Sassaman’s participation in the invention of PGP encryption and remailers, corresponds with crucial components of Bitcoin’s foundation.
Speculation around Sassaman has grown, notably about the unrealized potential of Bitcoin features that Nakamoto hinted at before leaving. Some feel Sassaman’s late-night social media activity resembles Satoshi’s posting patterns, giving weight to the theory.
As the documentary’s air date approaches, industry insiders have varied opinions about the potential consequences of revealing Nakamoto’s identity. Notably, wallets linked to Satoshi have around 1.1 million BTC, which is today valued at around $67 billion.
The reveal of Nakamoto’s identity, especially if they are living, may cause panic in the Bitcoin market due to the enormous amount of Bitcoin controlled by a single individual.
The Polymarket betting odds mirror Sassaman’s strong position, with a 46% likelihood of being identified as Nakamoto during the documentary. Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin donor, follows him at 13%. Craig Wright has only a 1% likelihood, while Elon Musk, Jed McCaleb, and Dorian Nakamoto likewise have low possibilities.
The community eagerly awaits the documentary’s insights, amid uncertainty about whether it will indeed unmask Satoshi Nakamoto as promised.