Bitcoin’s value is expected to experience significant volatility as the U.S. presidential election approaches, driven by the “Trump trade” narrative and the asset’s Q4 seasonality performance. Analysts at Bitfinex believe these factors will create a “perfect storm” for BTC, leading to exciting times ahead ¹.
The “Trump Trade” Narrative
The crypto community views a Republican victory as a bullish move for BTC, while a Democratic win is seen as bearish. This is because Donald Trump is pro-crypto, promising favorable policies, whereas Kamala Harris’s administration leans toward anti-crypto actions ¹.
Bitcoin’s Recent Performance
BTC has shown remarkable resilience since its fall below $54,000 in early September, and is on track to close October in the green, similar to previous years ¹. The asset saw a swift 6.2% plunge last week before recovering, and surged past $70,000 on Monday, reaching $71,200 ¹.
What to Expect
Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, with Bitfinex expressing confidence in longer-term price appreciation ¹. The surge in options activity, driven by key dates around the election, will likely fuel further volatility.