The MicroStrategy chairman thinks Bitcoin will have long-term annual returns 8% higher than the S&P500.
MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor predicted on Monday that Bitcoin will reach $13 million over the next two decades.
The billionaire explained why the leading digital asset’s recent volatility hasn’t frightened his company, and the advantages for investors to buy into MSTR instead.
Bitcoin To $13 Million, Says Saylor
During an interview with CNBC, Saylor forecasted that Bitcoin will retain its 44% compound annual growth rate in the short term, before that growth steadily declines by roughly 5% per year as the asset matures.
“My long-term forecast is it’s going to go to $13 million over 21 years,” said Saylor. “At some point, it’ll be the S&P return plus 8%, and it’ll be the S&P vol plus 8%.”
To reach that price by 2045, Bitcoin would need to maintain an average CAGR of 29.56%.
Saylor initially put forward a similar price forecast during his speech at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville. While $13 million was his “base case”, his “bear case” was $3 million (in line with VanEck’s predictions), and his bull case was a whopping $49 million – almost 1000X higher than today.
In the meantime, Saylor expects continued BTC volatility – largely because it is a globally traded, 24/7 asset that is highly liquid.
“If you’re worried about a missile strike, you can’t teleport your ten million dollar apartment to Singapore, lever it up 10 to 1, and short $100 million worth of New York real estate,” he explained. “But you can short $100 million worth of Bitcoin by borrowing $10 million.”
Regarding MicroStrategy (MSTR), Saylor argued that the company has “pioneered” the Bitcoin-backed bond market by issuing billions of dollars in convertible bonds to buy BTC.
As an investment, he says MSTR is like a “tax deferred” BTC yield” instrument, effectively letting users borrow money to buy BTC at rates they could not access as an individual. Since adopting a BTC reserve strategy in 2020
Peter Schiff Disapproves
Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called out Saylor for boasting about the gains of both BTC and MSTR, calling his ideas “a bunch of nonsense.”
“MSTR is down 40% from its 52-week high and is 6% below its 2021 high. The actually returns are not nearly as rosy as you describe and will soon get worse,” he argued over Twitter on Monday.