Investors think Bitcoin will soon top $100,000 regardless of who wins the US election. That places more weight on macro economics and market demand than possible policy scenarios.
Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin said in recent remarks to CNBC, “Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly.”
That may be assuring to fast-moving crypto markets that turn on a dime and put some stock in the idea that the election outcome could swing prices one way or the other. VanEck marked $100,000 BTC target for the end of 2024 in December if Trump wins.
US Presidential Elections and Potential Impact
Shortly after Tuesday’s debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, meme coins favoring the Republican candidate plunged in price, and the Democrat flipped the Republican on Polymarket.
Polymarket is the largest betting market on Ethereum, and Harris led Trump Thursday evening, 50% to 49%, with a nearly $900 billion betting pool.
Bitcoin’s price has followed a cycle for over twelve years now. It tends to rally for about a year months after its regularly scheduled supply cut every four years. The last supply cut was on April 19 and most experts believe the actual impact has not been felt yet.
The going price on crypto exchanges has also born a strong correlation to the effective federal funds rate at the US central bank. The Fed signaled in August it is about to resume cutting interest rates, which is expected to begin next week during the FOMC meeting. The current estimations claim the Fed will reduce the rates by 25 basis points.
65% US Consumers Expect Crypto to Replace Cash
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency industry is at the inflection point of a sea change in mass adoption based on a new Deutsche Bank survey result of US consumers.
The survey found that a decided majority—65% of US consumers—believe crypto could replace cash someday in revenge for the nerds’ future.
With such a fixed place in the public consciousness, it doesn’t appear Bitcoin has too much to fear from where the partisan lines are drawn in the US government next January.