The bitcoin price could suffer if Kamala Harris’ election chances improve, an analyst warned.
One online prediction market now shows Kamala Harris as the favorite to win the U.S. presidential election in November.
In the lead-up to the U.S. elections in November, bitcoin’s price could be negatively affected if Kamala Harris’ chances of winning strengthen against her pro-crypto rival, Donald Trump, according to an analyst.
Online exchange YouHodler’s Ruslan Lienkha said cryptocurrency investors are watchful of the current vice president’s strengthening odds on multiple online prediction markets, as they see a potential Harris victory as being bearish for the largest digital asset by market capitalization.
“If investors believe a Democratic administration might impose stricter cryptocurrency regulations, bitcoin’s price could suffer,” Lienkha told The Block. “Harris’s momentum in crucial swing states could intensify these concerns.”
He added that if Harris wins, the crypto market participants will continue to face pressure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). “With a Harris win and no major shifts expected in the regulatory landscape, the SEC will likely attempt to apply the existing traditional finance framework to the crypto market,” Lienkha said.
On Tuesday, opinion polls revealed that Harris made significant gains in key swing states. She is leading Trump in four crucial battleground states, while the former president leads in two, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters.
Her odds of winning have also improved on the Polymarket betting platform, rising to 44%, though she still trails Trump, who stands at 55%. However, the online prediction market PredictIt now shows Harris as the favorite to win in November, with shares of her victory selling for 52 cents, while shares for a Donald Trump victory are selling at 50 cents.
Online prediction market PredictIt favours Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. Image: PredictIt.
According to QCP Capital analysts, if Donald Trump secures victory in November, discussions regarding a sovereign bitcoin reserve and the potential for other nations to follow suit could fundamentally alter the cryptocurrency landscape.
“The establishment of a U.S. or sovereign ‘put’ on bitcoin prices may have significant implications, potentially making accumulation on dips a strategic investment approach,” QCP Capital analysts said.