Bitcoin prices are retreating again today, but analysts predict that markets will still be on track for a breakout later this year.
Bitcoin prices dipped to an intraday low of $65,563 on July 30, marking a 6% slump since the beginning of the week.
The asset recovered to reclaim $66,000 but failed to hold at that level, dropping back below it during the Wednesday morning Asian trading session.
Nevertheless, BTC markets remain in a five-month rangebound channel, and analysts are confident that they will break out to the upside in the coming months.
When Bitcoin Breakout?
On July 30, crypto analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ said that “Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout.”
“History suggests that a breakout from the re-accumulation range a mere 100 days after the halving was always going to be unlikely,” he added regarding the premise of a breakout now.
In the last cycle, the breakout occurred around 160 days after the halving so if history rhymes this would be in September sometime.
Moreover, the cycle peak didn’t occur until late the following year last time, so this would mean no top until Q4 2025.
Trader Bob Loukas echoed the sentiment in a post on X on July 30, predicting a “solid breakout to all-time highs for Bitcoin” around September 15.
He also predicted that the asset would reach $100,000 by December 1, adding, “At least, that’s within a very reasonable cycle projection based on past behavior.”
Another Market Catalyst
September 18 also has a very significant Federal Reserve meeting scheduled, which is likely to see a rate reduction for the first time since early 2020. According to CME Group, the odds of a rate cut in September are 85.8%.
A reduction in rates is generally positive for high-risk assets such as crypto because borrowing becomes cheaper, there is more liquidity in markets, and risk appetite increases due to lower yields from interest on capital.
There is also a Fed meeting today, July 31, in which policymakers will shed light on monetary policy. However, it has been highly anticipated that the U.S. central bank will keep rates the same at 5.25% to 5.50%.
Markets appear to have already factored this in, with crypto assets and major tech stocks falling this week. Total crypto market capitalization has dropped 2% since the beginning of the week to $2.47 trillion at the time of writing.