Bitwise research analyst Ryan Rasmussen projects a 50% probability of spot Ethereum ETFs receiving approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in May.
Furthermore, he anticipates Bitcoin reaching $88,000 by the conclusion of 2024.
Ethereum ETF Approval Hangs in the Balance
In a recent interview on Yahoo Finance, Rasmussen emphasized that ETFs are increasingly attracting interest from institutional investors prior to the potential approval date. He noted that this development is influencing Ethereum’s recent performance, as the second-largest digital asset has seen more gains than BTC.
Furthermore, he expressed concerns regarding the market’s preparedness for the product in line with SEC preferences.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs previously faced rejections until the SEC was faced with a lawsuit from Grayscale. While the Bitwise researcher does not believe that a lawsuit is needed for the Ethereum ETFs, their approval in May is a coin toss, hence a 50% chance of it going either way.
Rasmussen also mentioned the forthcoming Ethereum advancements driving the cryptocurrency’s expansion. He emphasized the March Dencun upgrade as a refinement aimed at reducing transaction costs on the Ethereum network, thereby enhancing adoption.
Rasmussen’s view was supported by Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Global Head of Research, who mentioned that he saw an almost 50% chance of approval in May. On the other hand, the Polymarket website’s predictions are less optimistic, with a 44% likelihood of Ethereum ETF approval.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou mentioned last month that they wouldn’t put more than a 50% chance on Ethereum ETF approval before May. Panigirtzoglou explained that for the SEC to ensure Ethereum ETF approval, it would need to classify ETH as a commodity, which is unlikely in the short timeframe.
The VanEck spot Ethereum application is expected to receive its decision from the SEC on May 23, with the anticipation that other decisions on similar filings will follow suit. Notably, the decision process is expected to mirror the spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Bitcoin Could Reach $88K
While Bitwise does not have a spot Ethereum ETF application in place, its spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January. Rasmussen mentioned that he was satisfied with the product’s performance, saying that it has brought in over $1 billion in assets.
Rasmussen also mentioned that at par with earlier predictions by Bitwise, Bitcoin is on its way to achieving its all-time high of at least $88,000 by the end of 2024.
In addition, he said that crypto was on its way to emerging from the weak 2022 market and getting into a multi-year bull cycle. On the other hand, Hougan sees Bitcoin surpassing $80,000 this year.